Correlation neglect, voting behaviour and polarization
نویسندگان
چکیده
We analyse a voting model when voters have correlation neglect, that is, they sometimes fail to appreciate that new information might be correlated with old information. We show that compared with rational voters, a society composed of voters with correlation neglect is more likely to vote for the correct outcome, if the distribution of preferences in society is heterogeneous and suffi ciently symmetric around the median voter. As a result, compared with rational voters, average welfare may be higher. These results are shown to hold for a variety of extensions, including endogenous information acquisition. In addition we analyse the electoral competition between two offi ce-motivated candidates and show that polarization of policies may be lower when voters have correlation neglect.
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